Taken from FAM Drone
It will be no surprise to hear that the best currency trading systems are the ones which make money! The issue is simply how to identify which those are, and particularly, the easiest way to choose which system will work the best for an individual trader, i.e. You.
First let’s disqualify some systems that never make money for anybody, at least not in the long term. They involve varying the danger according to whether the last trade won or lost. Statistical data disprove it every time. Gamblers lose their shirts on these systems and it would be crazy for a forex trader to utilize a system like that.
So with that rant out of the way, let’s take a look at the simple way to identify a rewarding system. To do that we’ll introduce the idea of edge.
Edge is the measure of a system’s returns over a period. It’s a simple calculation but you do need a reasonable number of results to determine it from. Back testing is a good technique to get those results. Edge is just the chance of a win multiplied by the average profit on a winning trade, minus the probability of a loss multiplied by the average loss on a losing trade. Results are figured out after taking away the spread and any other per trade costs.
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Jul.22,2010
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