It will be no surprise to hear that the best currency trading systems are the ones which make cash! The problem is simply the simplest way to identify which of them those are, and particularly, how to choose which system will be the best for an individual trader, i.e. You.
First let’s cross out some systems that never make money for anyone, at least not in the long run. The idea is if your last trade lost, then your next is more likely to win, so you take a larger position. However this idea is completely wrong. Stats disprove it each time. Gamblers lose their shirts on these systems and it would be mad for a currency exchange trader to employ a system like that. So with that rant out of the way, let us take a look at how to identify a profitable system. Back testing is a good way to get those results. Demo testing is even better as it is closer to the real situation, but it can take a very long time to gather enough results from demo testing so the general public use back tests which are quicker.
Edge is just the chance of a win multiplied by the average profit on a winning trade, minus the chance of a loss multiplied by the average loss on a losing trade. Results are worked out after subtracting the spread and any other per trade costs.
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Dec.12,2011
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